US expects just 59,000 new jobs in October as shrinking workforce keeps hiring flat

Economists expect the United States to report meager hiring figures for October. A Dow Jones consensus forecast projects nonfarm payrolls grew by only 59,000 positions. That represents a small rise from the 29,000 jobs created in September, extending a prolonged stretch of subdued hiring.

A shrinking worker pool

Despite sluggish hiring, forecasters anticipate the unemployment rate will remain low at 4.2%. A shrinking labor pool explains why the jobless rate has not spiked even with lower job counts. An aging population is driving staff into retirement, long-term birth rates remain low, and slowing immigration reduces the pool of prime-age workers.

Data shows the labor force shrank by 434,000 individuals between January 2025 and September 2026. The participation rate fell 0.8 percentage points to 61.8%. Over that timeframe, monthly job growth averaged 35,000, with seven months recording job losses and only one month rising above 200,000 additions.

Low layoffs balance hiring freeze

While hiring remains slow, companies are not letting many staff go. Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 189,000 last week, touching levels not seen since July and remaining near records dating back to 1969. In addition, job openings rose by 333,000 in September. The number of workers voluntarily quitting jobs reached 3.36 million, the highest mark in 18 months.

The hurdle of long-term joblessness

The slowdown creates steep obstacles for those without work. Because businesses are neither expanding rapidly nor firing staff, fewer openings appear for outside applicants. The count of individuals unemployed for more than 25 weeks has climbed by 495,000 since early 2025. Over the same window, the average length of unemployment grew by 2.8 weeks to reach 24.8 weeks.